Introduction

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A must-hit-by jackpot, or mystery jackpot, is one that is guaranteed to hit by a certain point. So, there are two good things about a large jackpot:

The jackpot itself is larger.
The probability of winning it is greater.

As with any progressive game, at some point the jackpot becomes large enough to sway the odds in the player's favor. This page will examine these 'target points' on some new slots by Ainsworth with mystery jackpots. I also have a page on the same subject about WMS mystery progressive slots.

General Rules

Following are generally how must-hit-by progressives work.

The jackpot starts at a defined minimum amount.
A point at which the jackpot will hit is randomly chosen on a uniform distribution between the starting value and maximum possible jackpot.
A certain percentage of money bet, known as the 'meter rise,' will be directed towards the jackpot.
When the meter crosses the predestined win point, the player will be awarded the jackpot.

This is how the Ainsworth games appear to work. To be specific, the ones I played at the Red Rock casino have these specifications:

Ainsworth Red Rock Slots

Jackpot	Minor	Major
Starting point	$20	$350
Must hit by	$50	$400
Rate of increase (based on bet)	0.45%	0.20%

Please be advised that other Ainsworth games may have different criteria than the above. The tables on this page apply only to the type of games I played at the Red Rock casino on May 9, 2013.

This page assumes that a jackpot is equally likely to trigger anywhere between the starting value and must-hit-by maximum. This seems to be true for all makers except AGS. The reader should be warned that AGS must-hit-by jackpots almost never hit until they are near the must-hit-by point. For example, the large jackpots are supposed to hit by $5,000, but it is rumored in the advantage player slot community that they rarely hit below $4,990. So, please do not apply the information in this page to AGS machines.

Math

Ainsworth Slots Free Games

The general formula for the Target Point can be given as:

t = m × (h + r) / (h + 2r), where:
t = Target Point
m = Max jackpot
r = Rise of meter rate
h = House edge of game (taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)

An unknown piece to this equation is h, the house edge of the game. No casino is going to tell you exactly what a given slot machine is set to. So, you may have to resort to industry averages. The following table shows the averages for Clark County, Nevada (where Las Vegas is). You can see for penny slots, which must-hit-by jackpots tend to be on, the overall house edge is 10.77%.

Clark County Slot Win to 11/1/2017 to 10/31/2018

Denomination	Casino Win (pct)
$0.01	9.97%
$0.05	5.54%
$0.25	7.11%
$1.00	6.34%
$5.00	5.51%
$25.00	4.99%
$100.00	6.22%
Megabucks	12.34%
Multi-denomination	5.26%
Total	6.82%

Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board, Gaming Revenue Report for 12-month period ending October 31, 2018 (PDF, see page 4).

Although the information from 2001 is a bit dated, you may wish to also consider the returns of random games I sampled in my page on Slot Machine Odds in Las Vegas. All things considered, I think it is safe to assume a house edge of 8% to 12% in Las Vegas. The nicer the casino and closer to the Strip the casino is, the higher the house edge will generally be. Outside of Vegas, you're on your own.

Ainsworth Target Points

The first table shows the Target Point for the Major jackpot, according to the house edge on the game and the amount of the Minor jackpot. In most situations, it will need to be about $392.

Ainsworth Major Jackpot Target Points

Minor Jackpot	House Edge
Minor Jackpot	14%	12%	10%	8%	6%
$25	$395.51	$394.94	$394.20	$393.22	$391.84
$26	$395.50	$394.92	$394.19	$393.20	$391.81
$27	$395.49	$394.91	$394.17	$393.18	$391.77
$28	$395.47	$394.90	$394.15	$393.15	$391.73
$29	$395.46	$394.88	$394.13	$393.12	$391.69
$30	$395.45	$394.86	$394.11	$393.09	$391.64
$31	$395.43	$394.84	$394.08	$393.05	$391.59
$32	$395.42	$394.82	$394.05	$393.01	$391.53
$33	$395.40	$394.80	$394.02	$392.97	$391.47
$34	$395.37	$394.77	$393.98	$392.92	$391.39
$35	$395.35	$394.74	$393.94	$392.86	$391.30
$36	$395.32	$394.70	$393.89	$392.79	$391.20
$37	$395.29	$394.66	$393.83	$392.71	$391.08
$38	$395.25	$394.60	$393.76	$392.61	$390.93
$39	$395.20	$394.54	$393.68	$392.49	$390.76
$40	$395.14	$394.46	$393.57	$392.34	$390.53
$41	$395.06	$394.37	$393.44	$392.16	$390.24
$42	$394.96	$394.24	$393.27	$391.91	$389.86
$43	$394.83	$394.07	$393.03	$391.57	$389.31
$44	$394.65	$393.82	$392.69	$391.06	$388.49
$45	$394.37	$393.44	$392.16	$390.24	$387.10
$46	$393.88	$392.78	$391.18	$388.69	$384.24
$47	$392.86	$391.30	$388.89	$384.62	$375.00

The second table shows the Target Point for the Minor jackpot, according to the house edge on the game and the amount of the Major jackpot. In most situations, it will need to be about $48.

Ainsworth Minor Jackpot Target Points

Ainsworth Slot Wins

Major Jackpot	House Edge
Major Jackpot	14%	12%	10%	8%	6%
$350	$48.68	$48.51	$48.28	$47.97	$47.53
$352	$48.68	$48.50	$48.27	$47.96	$47.51
$354	$48.67	$48.50	$48.26	$47.95	$47.49
$356	$48.67	$48.4

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